Submitted by Garrick Hileman06.18.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Yahoo's stock (Ticker Symbol: YHOO) has been on a roller coaster these past few months.
Most recently, following news that Yahoo! had broken off merger talks with MSFT the stock plummeted to the $23 range, Carl Ichan is moving to replace Yahoo!'s Board of Directors at the company’s shareholder meeting set for August 1.
Ichan’s slate of directors would be more open to selling the company. This outcome could provide a boost to Yahoo’s stock.
This is a prediction that Yahoo!’s stock price will reach $26 per share on or before August 2nd. The stock does not have to close at $26 per share; it can reach the $26 figure during intraday trading.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Aug 02 2008 | Current Consensus: | 2.41% | Total Bets: | 87 |
| Today's Change: | -0.38% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 54.98% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 2.41% |
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And the hits just keep on coming...
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/19/yahoos-executive-structure-crumbles...
And the tracking sheet for those of you keeping score:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/19/tracking-former-yahoo-execs-so-many...
Lots of flurry of activites in the last few minutes. Rumor is that MSFT and YHOO talk is back on. See http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9975467-7.html and http://www.techcrunch.com/
Disclosure: I now have a position on this
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080624/yahoo_microsoft.html?.v=2
Reuters
Microsoft, Yahoo buyout talks back on: report
Tuesday June 24, 1:19 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News) is back in talks to buy out Yahoo Inc (NasdaqGS:YHOO - News), technology blog TechCrunch reported on Tuesday, citing multiple unnamed sources at both companies.
Both Microsoft and Yahoo declined comment.
"The information we have is thin, but what one source is saying that Microsoft is talking a price lower than the $33 they were offering when the talks disintegrated in May," the report said.
Yahoo shares rose 5.73 percent to $22.68 on the Nasdaq in afternoon trading.
(Reporting by Kenneth Li; Editing by Andre Grenon)
David,
your "full disclosure" is appreciated, albeit unnecessary. No series C license needed to trade or SEC stockwatch cops in these parts ;)
@Garrick, disclosed so it doesn't look like a pump and dump attempt.
This may be a tossup. The recent "development" might just be Icahn covering his bets (ala Gordon Gecko) Yet, with several senior execs leaving, Gates gone, current depressed YHOO pricing, it is prime for a more fruitful discussion/negotiation. Then again, who knows at this point? Perhaps, Yang or Ballmer or u? :)
Now that YHOO has broken the $20 support level and without much positive news coming except for the dog-and-pony show to proof their case for rejecting MSFT bid prior to the Augst meeting, this stock isnt going to have much upward push. Shorts are having a field day.
Breaking news: Microsoft seeks allies for new Yahoo move: report Pre-open trading shows YHOO up 6% to $21.50.
It shot up to $24.64 today. Thank you, Microsoft!
I seriously doubt YHOO will break $26 in the prediction timeframe. Today it stands at a little over $23. The level of uncertainty that Icahn can successfully persuade the proxy vote in his facor is mounting. That reduces the possibility of Microsoft deals. Even if the outcome came out to Icahn's favor, deals discussion won't commence immediately.
YHOO down almost 5% after YHOO rejects MSFT/Icahn proposal over the weekend. Looking at the details as revealed in articles so far, I tend to side Yang and current board in the decision to reject the Friday proposal. I do see the offer being pro-MSFT and pro-Icahn more so than for YHOO shareholders. YHOO shareholder should be leary about Icahn running the rest of YHOO assets after the search asset goes to MSFT. This prediction is going to the wire, I think.
YHOO continues the downward trend (approx 4% from yesterday's close). The only chance this prediction will come true is if Icahn has an overwelming win at the proxy vote (which is looking bleaker as each day passes).
Given the compromise reached and the revised list of board nominees for vote at August 1 meeting, the likelihood of any new deals will not happen before August 2. This is almost a done deal (UNFAVORABLE judgement) as YHOO is expected to report a weaker than expected ($0.11/sh) result tomorrow.
"Expected to report a weaker than expected result"...hmm
@Shiv, yep! Here are the supporting links...
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/uh-oh-time-q2-looking-weak-for-yahoo-...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/yahoo-icahn-peace-deal-highlights-...
Another potential sign for weaker Q2 report is the recent news in June of hiring freeze in force (http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/the_yahoo_hiring_freeze_explained_yho...)
YHOO down 4.72% today Looks like easy money now.
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