Submitted by The Standard03.31.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on September 18, 2008: With the public announcement from the Joost CEO today, this is a done deal. Judged at 100%. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Joost currently operates as a client application that viewers must download before they can watch programming. Joost's Web-based competitors -- Hulu, YouTube, Brightcove, etc. -- don't have this restriction, and are better able to gain new viewers and market share. Joost will be forced to announce plans to create a Web service that allows viewers to watch Joost video through a Web browser before November 1, 2008, without downloading a separate client application (although some viewers may have to download the latest Flash or media plug-in for their browsers). This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service. This prediction will close approximately one week before the judgement date, or when an announcement is made, whichever comes first. (Note: This prediction is part of The Industry Standard special feature, Opinion: 10 'Net services that will succeed, and 10 that will probably fail. To see the related article, click here. To read the rest of the special feature, and see the many related predictions, click here.)
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Oct 24 2008 | Current Consensus: | 99.33% | Total Bets: | 58 |
| Today's Change: | 3.44% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 99.33% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
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Weeks instead of months. This looks like almost a done deal (way ahead of November).
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t...
According to this sneak preview, it shows a Joost web-based viewer (require a plug-in install on the browser) that will be released in September ahead of prediction closure date of November 2008. The preview seems to be working fairly well. I anticipate a launch early September if not earlier.
Very interesting, David. Joost needs this so badly. I wonder if they are too late? Talk about a dramatic shift from being on top of the world (in the media) to playing catch up. Hulu is showing everyone how it should be done these days. YouTube is even taking notice (Hulu has an actual revenue stream).
Note that release isn't required for this prediction to be judged a success, but merely an announcement. Should definitely come in time, even if the note currently posted on the Joost website (http://blog.joost.com/2008/06/joost_forums_going_down.html) isn't considered sufficient.
Actually, looking at what Joost's posted on that page "Some of you might have heard that we’re developing a web-based version of Joost. Well, it’s coming and we’re excited about it" and the criteria listed above "This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service." I'm not sure we haven't already fulfilled the requirement to close.
CLEARLY they've announced they're definitely planning to develop such a service. I suppose it hinges on one's definition of "definite plans".
In any case this looks to be easy money. Possibly very short-term, possibly mid-term.
Why is this prediction still open?
www.tvtechnology.com/pages/s.0066/t.14629.html
"Joost, the streaming video service from the founders of Skype, for which users have had to download its client software, said it’ll make a Web-based version available soon and begin streaming more live content."
"That product (Web-based version) is weeks away from launch, CEO Mike Volpi tells us"
www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_time
www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/joost-launching-in-china-but-when-will-it-re...
"We're told the new Web-based version will launch later this summer."
Most importantly, Bradley's link to Joost's official blog is good enough. What's the plan, are we waiting for Joost to shut down?www.thestandard.com/predictions/joost-doesnt-reach-second-birthday-may-09
An indication that it is in the works in not sufficient for judgement. A definitive plan that meets the judgement date is required for favorable judgement. At the moment, this is an easy money bet but ROI is at least 2 months away.For now, plenty of other plays available. I had position on this some time back but with so little activity, it was like dead money for a long time.
The prediction says, "This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service." Forget PLANS to DEVELOP, the CEO himself is saying that there are plans to RELEASE the product (which clearly means that the product is in development). Also, note that the product does not have to be released before November. It can be released 5 years from now, all the prediction is concerned about is that "Joost will ANNOUNCE a Web-based viewer by November 1, 2008." There are sufficient sources, both official and from the main stream media, that prove that Joost has indeed announced this.
Even if you construe the quotes merely as tentative plans to develop the product (which they are not) it's still good enough for the prediction.
We're arguing over semantics here.
Well, if that is indeed the case, I had a for bet on Jun 17 when I posted this http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t...
and judgement would have been rendered then. TIS probably needed something more definitive details. Then again, I am all for a favorable judgement rendered :).
@TIS, after much waiting, I am now with the opinion that this prediction indeed should be closed and judged favorably. Additional justification can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/joost-forums/browse_thread/thread/fe1c7f8... where Joost has officially reconfirm that web-based viewer is in the works (which satisfies the criteria for judgement). It would seem that definitive plans (i.e. schedules) will not be made public until it is ready for primetime (even as a beta).
I am beginning to suspect that Joost web-based viewer is all but vaporware and PR-speak for a few reasons ...
1) Joost continues to release and support new version of its OS-specific client.
2) Video stream architecture is based of the BitTorrent-like model which has the ability to stream from individual machines to another with the smarts of segmentations and reassemblies. This is rather difficult to do via browser within an HTTP/HTTPS session (BTW I am no expert on this).
3) Volpi's comment of "weeks away" turned into "months" with no follow-up comments on delays.
4) Responses to queries in the Joost Groogle Group (which replaces Joost defunked Forum) were far and few in between aside from the vague "still working it". Last comment on this was dated Aug 4.
As such, I am changing my position that prediction should NOT be closed yet until Joost revealed definite plans as dictated by the prediction (which I would consider a formal schedule, a demo viewer and/or enough details of the web-viewer designs to show due diligence on the effort).
I was told by a Joost employee that I know they will have something ready for a closed beta test by the end of this month probably after the Olympics ...because they know that beta testers are all watching the Games and not TV reruns .
If that is the case, why is there no response officially on the Joost Google Group discussion? Just sounds like yet another misdirection.
I received an invitation to the closed beta.
Uses a plug-in, but the video is through the browser, not a separate client.
They've previously announced plans. They have the system working. This one is looking good.
@Bradley, can you take a snapshot and send to TIS for judgement?
@Bradley and TIS, I got an invite to check out the new Joost site as well. The new Joost stie is pwd protected and login credentials were provided to those invited. It requires an install of a plug-in (7.43MB in size and signed by Joost). The videos are rendered within the browser using the plug-in (I used IE7 to check). This is a confirmation that it is indeed in the works and is working (albeit with bugs). What does TIS need as proof to close this prediction?
Looking into it, guys.
@Bradley, would you be able to send me the screenshot? I have the original beta - not access to the closed one you speak of. Thanks!
@Eric, I have it working. I can send you multiple screenshots (to show the progression from logging on to viewing a video). Hang tight. Will send them once I capture the shots.
So, the closed beta that you folks have received is not an official "announcement" per the prediction's requirements. This definitely seems to have taken the prediction much closer to resolution, but Joost currently is only confirming that, "a small number of people are testing a "new product.""
We already met the announcement criteria (http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t... and http://blog.joost.com/2008/06/joost_forums_going_down.html) . The screenshots (I have provided) showed that it is not vaporware and as such should have met the "definite plan" criteria.
TIS has an article up right now confirming the plans.
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/09/05/joost-desktop-client-toast
Note that TIS has a separate article up about the closed beta.
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/09/05/web-based-joost-player-closed...
As far as screenshot proofs are concerned, TechCrunch has a video of the beta up on their site.
All kinds of news stories spawned off of the articles here on TIS and on Om Malik.
"The decision to suspend the client is likely to be announced soon, I am told." -- Giga Om. The title says "announce". It's obvious (and has been for months) that Joost is playing catch-up as fast as they can. Stories have leaked that the official announcement is very close.
Shall we say that since the closed beta has been quietly rolled out to a lucky few that Joost has implicitly announced the demise of the client software? I think we all know how this prediction is going to close. Question is: 1) when and 2) should we hold this prediction to a different standard? I'm just asking.
@Eric: Joost has not announced the web-based system quite yet.
The question is have they "announce[d] plans to create a Web service that allows viewers to watch Joost video through a Web browser"? I say that they've repeatedly done so. I don't think there's any question that Joost has been public and official about having such plans.
They've talked about it, and released a beta, but a formal announcement is yet to come.
Although the beta exists, dropping a few lines to the public is by no means an announcement.
Seriously, the whole prediction is about the announcement of the plan to develop a web-based viewer. Not the announcement of the launch. It has been stated that Joost has planned on the web-based viewer several times including by its CEO and on Joost own site. How more official do we need? The fact that it is now proven to actually exist and working just confirmed the status of the web-based viewer. It is not only at the planning stage, it has been developed and under limited public test. How more definite do we need it to be?
hm,hm.hm
OK. I cashed out my position on this one. Seems like TIS made the decision to wait for official announcement for judgment. Have no doubt this would be judged favorably but it is no longer worth the wait for a 7% additional gain.
Meh, I perpetually have free cash. I'll take over your position and hold it until resolution. :)
@Bradley, someday I will be in a position of perpetual free cash. Don't quite know why but somehow I seems to be always in a margin condition (negative cash). Lucky for me, I have already made 7%+ off the amount cashed out on such an active trading day today. So, I think my decision was a good one (this time).
@TIS, web-based viewer officially launched today at www.joost.com (the one with Plug-in version). Next month, no plug-in (according to Joost CEO).
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/09/18/new-joost-launches-now-and-next-mon...
Now that is what I was looking for. THANKS!
@Eric, this is a better link as it is more official
http://blog.joost.com/2008/09/notice_anything_different.html
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