Jeremy Toeman has a really interesting prediction up on LIVEdigitally this morning, reasoning that there is a perfect storm of factors that will produce a huge leap in MacBook (i.e. notebook, non-desktop) market share in the next year.
To quote Jeremy:
1.) Vista is just a disaster (I can count on one hand the number of people I know personally who think it’s a step up from XP), and there’s no solution imminently on the horizon.
2.) The PC manufacturers are caught in an Innovator’s Dilemma moment where the thousands of configurable options on a PC are what their customers have asked for, yet don’t truly want.
3.) The price point of an entry level MacBook is on par with a Windows notebook.
4.) Finally, and possibly most importantly, the introduction of BootCamp and Parallels have enabled the “tentative” customers to make the leap, knowing they can run Windows for anything they miss (Outlook!)
This is a prediction that Apple laptops (we're going to be liberal here, i.e. not JUST the MacBook line and/or is successors, whatever the name, we're talking ALL Mac laptops in aggregate) will have at least 50% market share by this time next year.
As for the judging, this could be somewhat challenging. Oftentimes this type of data is released a good quarter after the time in question. Judgment will be made as soon as a metric showing Apple's sales are reported by a solid source. If a user finds this information before we do, and we accept the source, we'll award that user S$10,000 Standard Dollars for helping to close the prediction.
Current Community Consensus 40%| Betting Closes: | May 15 2009 | Current Consensus: | 40.13% | Total Bets: | 33 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 50.00% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 37.75% |
Comments
XP still dominates, and businesses are sticking with it. 50% is too much. Perhaps 25% is achievable.
Mac laptop share is south of 10% today. This is easy money.
Apple garners 4.6% of notebook market share in 1Q08. This is a far cry from the 50% target for next year.
@Abner, agree on easy money but the ROI on this is so far away. Much better plays available for several months to come.
No Chance.
If this were limtied to consumers only. And US only. And exluding everything but Vista PCs. Then maybe.
1) linux and xp are available as well.
2) huh? laptops always have limited options.
3) not compared to a 600USD dell new.
4) I run OS X on my used ThinkPad, and Apple opened up the vitualization gates on OS X.
plus there is the MID market to consider now with the likes of the eeepc, are they laptops or not? <400USD for cost conscious consumers and children's market.
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