Submitted by Matt McAlister01.25.2008
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Ad spending will shift from impression to performance-based marketing in 2008
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Betting closes on Dec 28 2008
As marketing budgets tighten in 2008, advertisers will put a premium on performance.
They will demand greater accountability which media companies will respond to with a wider range of performance-based advertising programs.
Advertisers will spend less and less on inefficient brand campaigns and shift remaining budgets to direct marketing instead.
Current Community Consensus 54%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 28 2008 | Current Consensus: | 53.74% | Total Bets: | 68 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 56.22% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 48.75% |
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There's a big difference between what marketers want and what will happen. Brand campaigns may seem inefficient, but that's mainly because there is not a directly quantifiable method of evaluating performance. If online direct marketing worked for brand focused companies then I'm sure the biggest categories spending online would be CPG and Auto as they're the companies that have the biggest ad budgets globally. However, they happen to be the two smallest categories advertising online. Why? Because you're going to have a hard time evaluating the performance of a Tide campaign by looking at traditional web ROI metrics. Any company that can do direct marketing is already doing so, they started years ago and Google only accelerated their investment. I have to believe that while marketers may want to see more accountable campaigns, unless people start buying their toothpaste and running shoes online direct marketing is not something that'll make sense to them. I think this is a prediction better suited to 2009 when video has totally taken off and perhaps we'll be able to better measure the ROI from branding in the online environment.
Isn't ad spending online already heavily weighted to "performance based"? Search and Google ad words are all pay per click which is performanced based and represents the lions share of online advertising. Google just picked up DoubleClick becase they were missing the 1/3 of ad spend in branding campaigns that is traditionally found in display ads which are usually sold on an impressions basis. I think the real question is will display (impression) advertising catch up to search (clicks) this year or not?
Two-thirds of the advertising professionals believed it would take three years or less for 20% of revenue to shift from traditional impression based media to impact-based measures (online). Lehman Bros.
Good news for both display and performance-based online advertising in 2008 ... no one likes change ... the traditional advertising world has been rocked by online advertising growth in the last five years, most of which came at its expense ... this was during a period characterized by a robust economy when change is not always demanded ... in a weak economic cycle, change is demanded and this augurs well for both absolute and relative growth in online display and performance-based advertising ... I give the edge to performance-based over display in particularly tough times, but suggest the lines between the two will blur as "optimum" campaigns will increasingly incorporate both ...
Sean Duggan - motiveinteractive.com
How exactly will you measure this prediction?
@Matt, I echo Shiv comment. There is no mention within the prediction the basis to be used for judgement. Source of metric? Also, what quantifiable "shift" will deem a favorable judgement?
This was one of the first predictions created. It was written before TIS bothered with such things as measurable criteria. :)
I don't envy TIS staff figuring out how to close/judge predictions like this one.
Absent of measurable criteria and the obvious challenge TIS will have to close/judge this, I am surprised that there have been 66 bets/cashouts. Personally, I am going to stay away from this one.
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